December 2005
The Manny Mill
While the free-agent market is turning into a small time vending station, the trade market is bracing for a blockbuster of "King Kong" proportions. For the moment, all things Manny go through Baltimore. The latest Manny trade winds are blowing east with heavy gusts towards Shea Stadium. The NY Daily News is reporting a possible four-team deal with Miguel Tejada and Manny Ramirez acting as the center pieces. The Mets, Orioles, Red Sox and Devil Rays are the ones stirring the pot.
First, remember to take anything the sensationalist Daily News says with restraint. While it’s almost a given that Manny is moving on, their are too many pieces to this puzzle to hone in on exactly what players would be involved as part of such a mega-deal. Further complicating a possible four-team deal are the on-going talks between the Orioles and Cubs in a deal that would send Tejada to Chi-town for Mark Prior or Carlos Zambrano. The Mets are also talking to the Rays about a separate deal for Danys Baez to beef up their bullpen. Four-team deals are extremely complicated— for this trade to occur creating the perfect alchemy is the major challenge. According to the News, this is how the trade could shape up:
Mets Get
RF-Manny Ramirez (Red Sox)
P-Danys Baez (Devil Rays)
Red Sox Get
SS-Miguel Tejada (Orioles)
OF-Joey Gathright (Devil Rays)
Orioles Get
SS-Julio Lugo (Devil Rays)
P-Matt Clement (Red Sox)
P-Kris Benson (Mets)
Devil Rays Get
3B-Andy Marte (Red Sox)
P-Aaron Heilman (Mets)
P-Jae Seo (Mets)
2B-Kaz Matsui (Mets)
Cabbie Analysis
This deal almost makes sense. I still don’t think Tampa Bay or anybody else will alleviate the Mets of their Kaz Matsui burden, but maybe getting Marte would make it worth it for them. The problem with this whole scenario is that I cannot imagine that Orioles’ general manager Mike Flanagan would be willing to part with Tejada for two average starters, who are owed a ton of money, and a shortstop who is a free-agent next season. I’m also dubious of the idea that the Red Sox would part with Marte in any deal involving Manny.
If this trade really does come to fruition, the Mets would probably have to make another deal because they would then be short two starting pitchers. My Cabbie gut tells me that Manny is more likely to end up in New York in a straight deal or a less complicated three-team deal. Also, don’t be surprised if the Angels resurface as a player in the Manny sweepstakes. The Halos need line-up protection badly for Vladimar Guerrero and they are stocked with high-level prospects and bullpen stalwarts. A Kelvim Escobar, Casey Kotchman, Garret Anderson package might be enticing to the Bosox. Furthermore, Arturo Moreno (Angels’ owner) has shown that he is willing to spend for star power, especially if the player is latin. Marketing-wise, the surrounding area of Santa Ana contains the largest per-capita latin community in the Country- a community that would most likely embrace Manny Ramirez as fervently as they did Vlad. Manny would probably feel very comfortable as he would be the 15th latin-born (6th player from the Dominican Republic) player on th Angels roster.
Carl the Cabbie
Puerto Rico, “Let Cuba Play!”
Good to their word, Major league Baseball (MLB) has reapplied for a permit with the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). The permit is necessary for Cuba to play in the World Baseball Classic (WBC)scheduled for this March. Baseball spokesman, Paul Courtney spoke on
Thursday and assured that the application would try to allay any
concerns the OFAC has about any monetary proceeds going from U.S. entities to Cuba.
Each team involved in the WBC is scheduled to receive 1 percent of the tournament’s proceeds with the winner receiving up to 5 percent. The conflict between MLB and
the U.S. government has developed because of strict embargos on Cuba
that do not allow for them to profit from any business venture
involving a U.S. entity.
The international community has not reacted well to the news of Cuba’s
possible exclusion from the WBC.
Puerto Rican baseball officials have threatened to have San Juan
removed as one of the host cities in protest of Cuba’s potential
non-participation. Israel Rolden, president of the Baseball Federation of Puerto Rico sent a letter on Wednesday to the International Baseball Federation (IBF)
stating that the island would decline to be a venue because of the U.S.
government’s decison. On Thursday, he reinforced Puerto Rico’s
intention when he said,
"What we are saying is that we should renounce our position as host if Cuba is not permitted to compete".
On another front, Hector Cardona, president of the Puerto Rican Olympic Committee
has been talking with other Latin American athletic officials trying to
enlist their support. The exclusion of Cuba would actually help Puerto
Rico competitively because Cuba is set to play in a first round bracket
that includes Panama, Puerto Rico and the Netherlands. However, Puerto
Rico has a lot of pride in their baseball and only want play the best.
Puerto Rico and Cuba are separated by only 150 miles of water. Historically, Puerto Rico has always been a step-brother
to Cuba. During their long fights for independence- both were colonized
by Spain; both agreed to Charters of Autonomy with Spain in 1897; and
both were invaded by the United States during the Spanish-American War.
A weakened Spain ceded both to the U.S in 1898 (Treaty of Paris) ending
the War. Of course, Cuba eventually did gain it’s independence while
Puerto Rico became a U.S. Commonwealth as well as the launch site for
the U.S. military during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Adding to the building drama is a team of Cuban-born Americans that
Florida congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart is forming as an alternative to
the national team of Cuba. The group is not recognized by
the IBF as an official federation. The team already includes former MLB
players, Rene Arocha, Osvaldo Fernandez, and Eddie Oropesa and plans on
trying to lure Jose Contreras, Livan Hernandez and Orlando Hernandez as
well. Through their spokesmen the present group said,
"We would like to represent the team of free Cuba…our lineup is ready"
Baseball spokesman Paul Courtney said MLB is dealing only with groups recognized by the IBF.
Meanwhile,
the Cuban Baseball Federation applied some international pressure of
their own through a statement on Cuban government television,
"Although we have never competed for money,
in order to offer options the Cuban Baseball Federation would be
willing for the money associated with participation in the classic to
go to those displaced by Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans."
The OFAC has not said when they will come to a decision as they begin deliberating on the new permit application.
Click On Flags To See Them Wave!
D-Day In The Bronx
The New York Yankees came to the shores of free-agency, but had yet to make a splash. Yesterday, was D-Day in the Bronx and they jumped into the water full-force! In a New York minute, the splash caused a ripple that will affect not only the American League (AL) East, but the entire junior circuit. Johnny Damon is one of the top three leadoff men in the AL (along with Ichiro Suzuki and Grady Sizemore). By adding him to an already potent line-up, the Bronx Bombers are as dangerous as ever. Bombers’ general manager (GM) Brian Cashman was banking that Damon and his agent, Scott Boras would come down in their demands from seven to four-guaranteed years. At 32 years of age, four years is about what Damon has left as a dominant player. Once the Los Angeles Dodgers dropped out, there was no team willing to go past four years (The Baltimore Orioles discussed offering Damon five or six years, but never got into serious discussions with Boras). It came down to the Boys in Beantown versus the Bronx Bombers. After the Yankees $52 million offer was tendered, the Red Sox had a chance to match. But, the new young guns in Boston’s front office (Ben Cherington and Jed Hoyer) blinked in the end and decided to pass, making Johnny Damon the new center fielder for the New York Yankees.
The Yankees were busy on another front while they were winding up the Damon negotiations. Early yesterday, they signed former Met and injured closer, Octavio Dotel to reinforce their bullpen. Dotel is the latest former fire-baller coming off of Tommy John surgery. The Yankees guaranteed Dotel $2 million for the season and gave him the chance to earn another $3 million to $4 million in incentives. Like Damon, Dotel is 32 years old. He has been a closer or dominant set-up man for most of his seven-year career. The progress of his rehabilitation has the Yankees targeting June or July for his return, just in time for the second half of the season. Last year, Dotel had 7 saves and a 3.52 earned run average in 15 games before opting for surgery. Before getting hurt, Dotel was one of the premier strike-out relievers in the game. In 2001 he struck-out 145 men in only 105 innings and has never had fewer strikeouts than innings pitched in any of his seven seasons in the bigs.
Damon will be joining his fourth team in his 11-year career. Not only has Johnny been one of the most effective lead-off men in the game for the past eight years, but he has also been incredibly durable- not counting his rookie year, Damon has avoided major injuries and has never played in fewer than 145 games in a season. With Derek Jeter, Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui and Jason Giambi hitting behind him, Damon should have no problem extending his streak (8 consecutive years) of scoring at least 100 runs in a season. Heck, with Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams, and Robinson Cano hitting at the bottom of the order Damon could drive in 100 runs for the first time in his career. The Yankees hitters’ resumes are so impressive that Damon will sport the second lowest career average in the starting line-up, even though he is a lifetime .290 hitter and has hit over .300 in four different seasons.
While the Yankees starting nine is top-shelf, their bench is mostly driftwood. The present group should see very little playing time. The sprited and hustling Bubba Crosby is presently their fourth outfielder. He is 29, and a lifetime .221 hitter in 163 career at bats (ABs). Long-time minor leaguer
Felix Escalona, 26, is their utility infielder. He is a career .209 hitter in 206 ABs. Andy Phillips is another guy who has seemingly laid down roots in Columbus over the last couple of years. Phillips, 29, is the backup first baseman and has a .167 average in 48 major league ABs. Kelly Stinnett is Randy Johnson’s new personal catcher and has the most experience of all the spare parts. Stinnett is 35 years old and a .239 career hitter in 1860 ABs. With the Yanks having cut ties with Ruben Sierra, expect the Bombers to add an experienced and versatile veteran who can play some first-base and outfield. Eduardo Perez and Daryl Ward are two options that Cashman might explore. Another player Cashman has been interested in before, former Oakland A’s outfielder, Eric Byrnes is also available now that the Orioles have non-tendered him.
Freebirds Still Flying
Scratch Carl Everett off the free-agent list. Everett agreed this week to a one-year deal to become the Seattle Mariners new designated hitter. While the free-agent market is thin, there are still some freebirds out there who can make an indent on their future team’s destiny… but, BEWARE— after the next storm of signings which is about to occur, the pickings will become even slimmer! This is a good time to forecast the impending storm and take a closer look at the top remaining free-agents.
Outfield
Johnny Damon
The Yankees and Red Sox continue to be the lead dogs in the Johnny Damon sweepstakes, waiting patiently for agent Scott Boras to nod his implacable head and say yes to a four-year deal. Well, the Yanks and Sox are about to get some more competition. Dodgers’ general manager (GM) Ned Colletti has pushed the envelope- first by hiring Grady Little (Damon’s old manager), then by signing former Damon teammate, Bill Mueller, and now by reportedly offering five guaranteed years and about $50 Million more reasons for Johnny to choose La La Land. However, if Los Angeles signs Nomar Garciaparra their interest in Damon could vanish. The key to the Damon negotiations seems to be the length of the contract. Damon is 32 years old and this is most likely his final big money contract, so Boras in his attempt to increase Damon’s negotiating leverage to its highest potential started the bidding at an unreachable seven-year minimum length contract. The Yankees and Red Sox have both been willing to guarantee up to four years, but the Dodgers might be willing to offer five years. The Orioles also might become players in the Damon derby. After a quiet offseason and a Miguel Tejada tirade, GM Mike Flanagan might feel pressure to sign a big fish in Baltimore. The wheel continues to spin and where Damon ends up is anybody’s guess.
Reggie Sanders
The Blue Jays, Cubs, Twins, Orioles, Pirates and Dodgers have shown the most interest in Reggie Sanders. Since spending the first eight years of his career in Cincinnati, Sanders has become the poster boy for veteran nomads. Keeping with his pattern of a team a year- whoever Reggie signs with will be his seventh team in the last seven seasons. Sanders has never been a durable player, playing at least 140 games only once in his career, but he has always been a consistent run-producer and a good defensive outfielder when he is in the line up. Keep in mind that Reggie has always played in the National League (NL), so the Cubs, Dodgers and Pirates might have the edge in signing him.
Juan Encarnacion
The biggest wild-card of the bunch is Juan Encarnacion, as he is likely to sign with one of the teams that misses out on Johnny Damon and Reggie Sanders. Encarnacion is a small notch below Sanders as a hitter, but he is 8 years younger and more durable. One of the advantages of signing Juan is his versatility- Encarnacion has seen extensive playing time at all three outfield positions. He’s cheaper than Damon, more useful than Sanders and would be a nice bargain buy for the Yankees or Cubs, who are both in desperate need of outfield depth. On the heels of trading two outfielders in the Alfonso Soriano deal, GM Jim Bowden and the Nationals have interest and could become a strong contender for Encarnacion’s services.
The Rest
Jacque Jones, Jeremy Burnitz, Preston Wilson and Rondell White represent the final solutions for teams seeking a starting outfielder through free-agency. All have big swings; all have big holes in their swings; and all are over thirty.
Jacque has the biggest upside because he’s the youngest, and has a smaller hole in his bat than Burnitz or Wilson. Jacque is also the fastest and best baserunner of the three (39 stolen bases over the past 3 years). The Cubs and Royals have been zeroing in on Jones while the Pirates and Cardinals have been monitoring the bidding. The Orioles have also expressed interest recently.
Jeremy Burnitz is only a year removed from his best season ever, unfortunately that was during his one season in Colorado. Teams are wary of signing the 36 year old lefty slugger as a full-timer. Burnitz is a .242 lifetime hitter against lefthanders and is usually good for 120-130 strikeouts a year. Allard Baird the GM for the Royals has had the most contact with the Burnitz camp, while the Pirates have also been mentioned in rumors.
Preston Wilson’s knees are failing him and he is beginning to enter into Rondell White country in terms of reliability. Both are free and both wield strong righthanded sticks when they’re healthy. The Cubs like the fact that Wilson will sign a one-year deal with them while their other favorite, Jacque Jones, will require two to three years. Wilson has also let it be known that the Cubbies are his first choice. Rondell is being looked at by the Astros as a backup if they can’t convince Nomar Garciaparra to come play left-field for them. The Twins and Orioles are also in play as possible destinations for White.
Nomar
Garciaparra is on just about every teams radar to play just about every position. As for the outfield- the Indians, Astros and Dodgers are all pursuing him for a corner outfield spot. The Astros have moved leftfielder Lance Berkman to first creating an opening in their outfield. The Indians would put Garcy into right if they sign him and platoon Ben Broussard and Casey Blake at first next season. Should the Dodgers sign him, they would use Nomar in left and occasionally at first-base.
Stay tuned! Next blog we’ll look at
the free-agent infielders on the Market.
Baseball drawing
by John Overmyer
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