First off, I want to apologize to any of my readers if I instilled any false confidence in them concerning the state of Pedro Martinez. When I wrote last week that Mets’ fans shouldn’t worry about Pedro, I think I was trying to provide solace to my own Mets’ psyche more than anything else. The truth is now apparent- Pedro’s 2006 postseason is over before it ever began. So, when you’re done grieving, take an extra deep breath, then slowly let it out, and start directing all your positive vibes towards Plan B.

Plan B

The most likely scenerio for a first round with no Pedro is that everyone will simply move up a notch.
This means that the starting four would be: Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez, Tom Glavine, Steve Trachsel, and John Maine. The main question facing manager Willie Randolph here is who pitches Game 1?  El Duque or Glavine? My guess is El Duque. The reason is fairly simple, Hernandez is one of the best postseason pitchers in baseball iover the past ten years. In a career 19 postseason games, 14 of them starts, Hernandez is 9-3 with a 2.55 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP and 107 K’s in 106 IP. Because of his years with the Braves, Glavine has pitched a bit more in the postseason and has also had success, but not quite the way Hernandez has. In 32 career postseason starts, Glavine is 12-15 with a 3.58 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP and 137 K’s in 201.3 IP.

Plan C

Another good reason to let El Duque play the role of ace in the first round of the playoffs is that he is the only pitcher on the staff who is flexible enough to bring back on three days rest to pitch a Game 4 should the Mets decide to bypass Trachsel or Maine. Glavine is a bit of a fuddy-duddy when it comes to messing with his routine. The only problem with Plan C is that should there be a Game 5, the Mets would have to rely on either Maine, Trachsel, or Glavine (on three days rest).

Plan D

This plan is my favorite, because I still believe in the magic of the Maestro. In this plan, the Mets do exactly what they would do in Plan C, except if there is a Game 5, the starter would be Pedro. Even if Pedro only faces one batter, this plan would maximize the unquantifiable advantage of inspiration. Pedro strolling out to the mound at Shea for the deciding game of the first round could have an effect similar to the one Willis Reed had on May 8th, 1970. On that day, Reed, who wasn’t supposed to play, walked out onto the Madison Square Garden court just a few minutes before tip-off and stunned Knicks’ fans by starting Game 7 of the NBA Finals even though he had a severly injured right leg. Reed scored the New York Knicks’ first two baskets of the game and even though they were his only points on the night, his courage and presence was enough to inspire the  Knicks to a decisive 113-99 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers.

Plan E

Willie Randolph borrows Bobby Valentine’s fake mustache, travels to Tampa, and busts Doctor K,
Dwight Gooden, out of jail. We slap a # 45 on his back and pass him off as Pedro for Game 5, if needed.

On A Positive Note

Though last night’s 13-1 loss was one of the most depressing Mets’ games in a long time, there was one positive note- Backup catcher Ramon Castro made a successful return from his torn meniscus injury going 1 for 3 with a leadoff double in the third inning. Upon his activation, the Mets designated Kelly Stinnett for assignment, meaning Ramon will be on the playoff roster afterall. 

*Updated 9/28/06- Since this entry, Pedro Martinez has been declared out for the playoffs and backup catcher Ramon Castro has made a successful return. I have updated the probable playoff roster accordingly.

One week remains for Omar Minaya and Willie Randolph
to decide who will comprise their 25-man roster for the divisional
round of the playoffs. Barring any major injury, it’s apparent who 23
of the players will be, but who carries the last two spots are still to
be determined. The Mets might have already clinched the NL East, but
for a handful of Mets’ players this final week of the season will be
their proving ground to see if they are worthy of a playoff roster spot.

The Importance Of The Bench

Anyone who doesn’t think these final roster spots mean that much,
just think back to the defending champion Chicago White Sox incredible
playoff run last season. The last four players on the ChiSox 25-man
roster all made monumentally important plays in each round of the 2005
postseason. Who can forget Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez’s sterling
three shutout innings of relief against the Boston Red Sox in the
clinching 5-4 victory of the AL Divisional Round. El Duque was almost left
off the roster in favor of Brandon McCarthy and was the final pitcher
added to the staff. And what about the classic Game 2 in last year’s AL
Championship Series. With the Sox already down a game,
two spare parts
helped turn that whole series around. When A.J. Pierzynski presumably
struck out to end the bottom of the ninth, Angels backup catcher Josh
Paul infamously rolled the ball back to
the mound, not realizing that
it had hit the dirt. Pierzynski then made his famous mad-dash to first
and kept the inning alive. Manager Ozzie Guillen then inserted backup
outfielder Pablo Ozuna as a pinch-runner. It became apparent that Ozuna
had just stole the most important base of the ChiSox season when Joe
Crede proceeded to double him home in the next at bat for the game
winning hit. If that wasn’t enough of a contribution from the end of
the bench, let’s remember the 2005 World Series. The White Sox won Game
3,               the longest game in World Series history (5 hours and 41 minutes),
when backup infelder Geoff Blum (photo to the right) went yard in the bottom of the 14th
inning with a two-out home run to put the Sox up 6-5 on their way to a
7-5 victory. Then in Game 4, the clincher, utilityman Willie Harris
delivered the biggest pinch-hit in White Sox history when he singled
off Brad Lidge in the 8th and then scored the winning run and the only
run of the game on a two-out base hit by Jermaine Dye.
An inning later,
the White Sox were World Champions for the first time in 88 years. So,
as you can see, who the Mets choose for the 24th or 25th spot
can have as much to do with the Mets’ playoff destiny as any of their
star players.

Backup Catcher

The most important decision for Omar and Willie will be who backs up sore-thumbed starting catcher Paul Lo Duca. The Mets would like to have one of the better backups in the NL, Ramon Castro,
fill that spot. However, Ramon has been rehabbing a strained left
oblique muscle and a torn meniscus in his right knee for two months now. While the local media has been
reporting positive news of late about Castro being close to

returning, one week is very little time for Ramon to shake off the rust, so there
is a chance the Mets will have to rely on someone else for
this important role. That someone else would either be Mike DiFelice (who has filled the backup role for most of the past two months) or August pickup Kelly Stinnett. The bet here is that if Castro can’t go, the veteran Stinnett will be the backup catcher.
Willie recently said that he rated the two even defensively, but
thought Stinnett offered a little more pop in the bat. While Stinnett’s
.228 average with the Yankees earlier in the season isn’t anything to
write home about, it’s not difficult to have more pop than the .080
average (2-25) that DiFelice has sported in his brief stint with the
Mets. As far as controlling the running game, the Mets would no doubt
be best off if the strong armed Castro could return. Castro has thrown
out 9 of 26 baserunners (35%) this year. While Stinnett has only thrown
out 6 of 29 runners (21%) on the year, DiFelice has the least zing of
the three in his arm (1 of 7 baserunners thrown out). Stinnett also has
long ties with the Mets, having started his major league career with
them back in 1994. So, as a final assessment, pray for Castro, expect
Stinnett, and if it’s DiFelice, hope he doesn’t have to play.

The 25th Man

Who will get the final spot on the Mets’ playoff roster is one that
will be based around strategy. The two contestants are outfielder Michael Tucker and infielder Anderson Hernandez.
The winner of this spot will depend on what Minaya and Willie value
most. If they carry Tucker, it gives them an
extra lefthanded
pinch-hitter with a little pop. If they choose Anderson Hernandez, the Mets will
have a very fast pinch-runner and a slick defensive replacement at second base
or shortstop should anything befall Jose Reyes. He also provides them with a very good bunter in case
they need a sacrifice at any point. So, in my opinion, since either Cliff Floyd or Endy Chavez
will be available as a left handed pinch-hitter, I think the Mets would
find it most beneficial to carry Anderson Hernandez. But, because of
Tucker’s veteran standing and a gut feeling that Willie and Minaya
would like to have the extra pinch-hitter to fully maximize their
strong bullpen, expect the 25th man to be Michael Tucker.

Below I have listed the Mets’ probable 2006 Playoff Roster:

Hitters                                                                               Starting Rotation

C-  Paul Lo Duca (R)                                                      1- Orlando Hernandez (R)   

1B- Carlos Delgado (L)                                                  2- Tom Glavine (L)      

2B- Jose Valentin (S)                                                     3- Steve Trachsel (R)

SS- Jose Reyes (S)                                                        4- John Maine (R)

3B- David Wright (R)

LF- Cliff Floyd (L) / Endy Chavez (L)                           Bullpen

CF- Carlos Beltran (S)                                                   CL- Billy Wagner (L)

RF- Shawn Green (L)                                                     SM- Aaron Heilman (R)

                                                                                            MR- Guillermo Mota (R)

Bench                                                                                MR- Chad Bradford (R)

C-  Ramon Castro (R)                                                    MR- Pedro Feliciano (L)

1B- Julio Franco (R)                                                       MR- Roberto Hernandez (R)

OF- Lastings Milledge (R)                                             LM- Darren Oliver (L)

IF-  Chris Woodward (R)

OF- Michael Tucker (L)

Key

R-   Righthanded

L-   Lefthanded

S-   Switchhitter

CL- Closer

SM- Setup Man

MR- Middle Reliever

LM- Long Man

Thursday night at Shea was Pedro Martinez’s second to last regular season start and you can bet your bobblehead that fans’ eyes were watching his performance as closely as if it were the seventh game of the World Series. Every fan knows how important it is to have our best players ready come the postseason. Yes, we need Carlos Beltran. Yes, we need Carlos Delgado. Yes, we need Billy Wagner, David Wright and Jose Reyes. But, more than anyone else we NEED Pedro Martinez if we are going to have any chance at bringing the ring home to momma.

As we head into the land of the few, the arena where the best in the majors claw for baseball supremacy, one question above all others has dominated Mets fans’ minds. Ever since the Maestro shed his tears in Pittsburgh, Sheasters throughout our great metropolis have endured many a sleepless nights wondering will Pedro Martinez be ready for the playoffs?

If it allows even one Metropolitan fan to sleep well tonight, I am here to tell you the answer is YES! After watching the Mets’ 5-2 loss to the Marlins, I can confidently say that Mr. Martinez is very close to being playoff ready. So, what did I see that allows me to speak so confidently? If ever there was a pitcher who is an artist, it’s Pedro Martinez. How else does a man who couldn’t top 86 MPH on his fastball all night strike out 7 guys in 5 innings. Knowing that his arm strength is still rebuilding, Pedro slowed his delicious changeup an extra 5 mph, throwing it at 70 MPH instead of his normal 75. When he did spot his fastball it was almost always following a changeup. The result was that Marlins’ hitters were late on it just as if he were throwing his normal 89-90 MPH. But, that’s only half the story. Because if that’s all Pedro had, well then the hitters could have just sat on his fastball or changeup once they figured out his pattern. But remember, Pedro is an artist on the mound. Pedro rode a dizzying curveball for four spectacular innings that had so much dip and dive, the Marlins might have wanted to call the all-night pharmacy for some anti-nausia medication.

It was only in the fifth that the Marlins got him. But, then again they really didn’t get him. Pedro
started to tire at about the 65-70 pitch mark, which is very understandable considering this was only his second start back after a month off because of his calf injury. Mike Jacobs and Joe Borchard both did a good job going with the pitch for a couple of singles, but then Pedro hit Alfredo Almazaga on a two-strike pitch and Miguel Olivo blooped a sawed off dunker into right followed by a Shawn Green throwing error that allowed both runners to move up. Martinez then easily struck out Anibal Sanchez and totally fooled Hanley Ramirez on a good changeup, but an off-balanced Ramirez had just enough to ground a two-out double past David Wright. Pedro ended his night by freezing Dan Uggla with a couple of Uncle Charlies before setting him down with an 85 MPH fastball for his 2,997th career strikeout.

So, to recap— Pedro threw 5 innings, giving up 4 hits, 1 walk, 1 hit batter and 3 earned runs while striking out 7 Marlins. He threw 87 pitches, 52 for strikes. He spotted his fastball well, topping out at 86 MPH on the radar gun, but mostly relied on a stellar changeup and a killer curve. He has one start left next Wednesday or Thursday at Atlanta before the fun begins. He is only 3 K’s away from the magical 3,000 milestone. Yes, it would be nice if Pedro had two starts left to bulid his arm strength, but if in his final regular season start he can throw 100 pitches, last 6 innings and add a couple of miles onto his fastball, he will be primed and ready to roll. Tonight was a big hurdle, one that he cleared easily. As Pedro said after the game, "I’m really close… Everything seems to be coming along just like I expected". So, sleep easy Mets’ fans, no more tears for Pedro, only smiles. In this cabbie’s opinion the Maestro will be magnificiant again come October.

          Carl The Cabbie